The Donald will win… just as Arnold did in his campaign for Governor in California.
By Doug Guetzloe
Those that know that I offer political consulting as one of the services of our PR/Marketing company, Advantage Consultants, nearly always ask me about Trump… how did he get this far, what’s going on in the process, can he really become the GOP nominee, etc.
I will share with you, the dedicated dozen or so who care, my thoughts on the Donald.
First of all, disregard what nearly every talking head/expert has to say about Trump. They don’t get it yet and when they do it will be too late for the 24/7 news cycle. Trump’s ascendancy is real and many may be laughing now but won’t be for much longer. Some say Trump has tapped into the growing anti-government, anti-politician mood that has always been there in American politics… but in the last decade or so has reached epic proportions.
Nixon had the ‘silent majority,’ Reagan had the “Reagan Revolution” and “Reagan Democrats.” The strong undercurrent in American politics today has now reached a high water mark that has overrun the river banks and Trump didn’t tap them, they tapped Trump.
I laughed out loud today at the incredulous talking heads who are stunned and shocked at Trump getting more Hispanic votes than his competitors. How can this be, Trump hates Hispanics and they hate him. He wants the build the wall, on and on. Trump will get most of the votes in every demographic group save possibly Harvard and Yale graduates… and even there he’ll get his fair share.
Trump is a pop culture phenomenon, a TV star, a bigger than life personality who is the very antithesis of what most voters have come to disdain. Reminds me of the ‘experts’ back during the first run of Arnold Schwarzenegger for Governor. They all laughed and said he’d can’t win, he can’t get the Hispanic vote.
At the time, I opined that they were wrong, again. The Arnold would indeed get the Hispanic vote and every other demographic. He’s a movie star – a pop culture phenom, what self-respecting Latino would not vote for the Terminator? I was right then and I’m right now. The same phenomenon is in effect.
Trump will carry the minority demographics because he’s the “anti-politician” and the more he is attacked, the stronger he gets. People, especially Republicans have had enough.
No one to blame here except the Republican Party whose drift from Reagan principles has manifested itself in a huge percentage leaving the Party for no party or ‘independent’ registration status.
The surveys I’ve done have shown that nearly 70% of non-party registered voters were Republicans who left the party that became so ensconced in partisanship, compromise and accommodation.
Can Trump win the nomination? Of course he can.
Senator Rubio, an outstanding candidate is the only hope the anti-Trump folks have, but unfortunately it will be too little. Too late as the Trump blitzkrieg continues unabated through the next several weeks.
By the way, within a month a majority of delegates will have been selected and Trump will walk away with the lion’s share.
Cruz will remain in the race and continue to run a poor third. The other two will continue on as long as there is money for jet fuel, taking another 10-12% of the vote.
Can Trump win the election. Of course he can and at this point he’s the prohibitive favorite to become the 45th President of the United States.
Trump will attract a huge percentage of the Obama fringe – marginal voters – the 6-8% that swing elections. Republicans will vote Republican, Democrats will vote Democrat and non-party will vote Trump along with the clueless ones whose entire life is pop culture, social media and Facebook.
Doug Guetzloe is a longtime political consultant and nationally recognized anti-tax crusader.