Non-partisan Winter Springs based polling firm Gravis Marketing shows Alan Grayson ahead of GOP rival by 15%, Democrat Charlie Crist leading Rick Scott by 12%, and favorable ratings for President Obama. The poll had a margin of error of ± 4%.
By Jacob Engels
Voters in Florida’s 9th congressional district don’t know jack……about Republican nominee Carol Platt. A poll conducted from September 15th to 16th from Gravis Marketing of 606 registered voters in the 9th congressional district revealed that a whopping 90% of respondents did not know who she is.
If the election was held today? 44% said they would vote for Democratic incumbent Alan Grayson, 29% would vote for Carol Platt, 6% for Independent Marko Milakovich. With only 45 days until the election, 21% remain undecided. 41% of respondents were Democrat, while 35% were Independent, and 24% Republican.
At first glance, you might look at these numbers and think that Alan Grayson should be up more on the GOP nominee, especially considering his resounding victory over Republican Todd Long in 2012 & large Democratic registration advantage. However, the fact that 90% of respondents are not familiar with Platt paints a very disturbing picture for the Saint Cloud Republican.
Platt, who bested Hispanic Businessman Peter Vivaldi & Blogger/Court Interpreter Jorge Bonilla – has lacked any substantive campaign activity since securing the nomination on August 26th. Following her primary win, which was fueled by 19-year-old political whiz kid Shane Maloy, the campaign parted ways with the son of former Seminole County Commissioner Grant Maloy. This move puzzled many & resulted in a critical eye being placed on the Platt campaign, which has scheduled a campaign kick-off for later this month – nearly a month after her primary win, and a month too late many consultants have said.
Platt spent over $250,000 to secure the nomination. She recently made a trip up to DC, where Republican leaders ignored her calls for help fundraising and campaign ad spends from groups like the NRCC. Donors & party leaders have said for a longtime that a Hispanic candidate would be worth using limited party resources against a powerhouse fundraiser like Grayson, and Hispanic Platt is not.
With less than 10% name ID of sampled voters, and 15 points down – it would take another “Taliban Dan” moment from the incumbent congressman to help Platt close the gap. Even with that, she would have to convince 16% of the 21% of undecideds in the district to vote for her to edge out Grayson – and that would take hundreds of thousands of dollars, possibly even millions.
“41% of respondents identified as Hispanic in our polling. Republicans might have been better off nominating an Hispanic candidate to take on Grayson, according to the data,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner & co-founder of Gravis Marketing.
For now, it looks like the Alan Grayson will be sailing towards another term. On to the Governors race and the Presidents likeability in the district.
44% of respondents said they would vote for Charlie Crist, while 32% said they favored current Governor Rick Scott. 24% of voters remain undecided, meaning Scott would theoretically have to take around half of the undecideds to close the cap.
President Barack Obama is still popular more or less in the district. 54% of respondents held very positive or somewhat positive views on Obama, while 41% held very negative or somewhat negative opinions. 6% were unsure.
“Congressman Grayson is stronger than President Obama in this district. The GOP will have a better electorate this year than in 2012, but it will be a tough district for Republicans to capture,” concluded Kaplan.
To view the full results and demographics of the poll, visit Gravis Marketing’s blog by clicking here.
Jacob Engels, is the Founder of East Orlando Post & Seminole County Post. He is a seasoned political operative who has led numerous statewide political groups and has worked on several high-profile local, statewide, and national races. Jacob has been interviewed on national television & radio programs, with his work having been featured in the Orlando Sentinel, New York Times, Washington Post, Miami Herald and other publications nationwide. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org