Comparing 2010 To 2014: Smart Republicans Know Teresa Jacobs Is Doomed

 

By Jacob Engels

 

There are a lot of smart people in politics.  I know of no one smarter than the fellow whose work I’m posting here today, with his permission but without attribution.  He makes a lot of money working for Republican candidates all across the country, and writing such a reasoned, balanced analysis that suggests that Teresa Jacobs is in serious trouble as she heads in to the election might irritate those people.  Orange County is viewed as pivotal county for both parties to win the state of Florida, with implications in the presidential race and gubernatorial and senatorial campaigns, so you don’t really want to be on the record telling people to turn out the lights because the party is almost over.

 

I’ve gotten to know this fellow recently because of a piece I did a while back detailing how Teresa Jacobs would be in trouble if Val Demings ran, because back then it didn’t look like Demings would go.

 

If you are looking for provocative news, this is probably not the piece for you.  There are no harsh words thrown here, just some facts that will likely have OCREC chairman Lew Oliver hunting down an Ambien prescription.  This is a nationally recognized professional speaking frankly about the status of Orange County and the GOP’s chances of keeping the mayor’s office.

 

Read this and commit it to memory because understanding it is guaranteed to help you sound a lot smarter at the next rotary or chamber of commerce meeting.

 

So here it is, posted in its entirety.  The author shall remain anonymous:

 

The climate for Republican victory in Orange County leading into the 2014 Mayoral election is bordering on catastrophic.

 

Like you, I have heard that Mayor Teresa Jacobs is an appealing crossover candidate that successfully defeated a well-funded sitting county commissioner in 2010, pointing out that her last opponent was a democrat. 2014, she again faces a democrat, but every other detail of the race has changed since then.

 

There a few truisms of local government campaigns we must lay out because without these truisms as a backdrop, the assumptions we make would be questionable.

 

First, with all apologies to the Florida League of Cities and Florida Association of Counties, local races do not drive turnout.  Some strong mayor races, like Miami Dade County, Jacksonville, Tampa and the City of Orlando are better than others, and in the case of Orange County, the mayor is a hybrid between a commissioner/mayor and a strong mayor.  While she has administrative authority, she lacks the ability to, say, hire a police chief or veto commission policy.   As such, those with business before the county are more emboldened to play both sides than they would be in a truly strong mayoral environment.

 

So Mayor Jacobs operates as what we would term a “mid-tiered strength” mayor, not a weak mayor but not a strong one either.

 

Sheriff races are the greatest drivers of turnout in the local government arena, and that doesn’t apply here because no Sheriff is on the ballot, but that will be discussed later.

 

With all respect to our state legislators, those races don’t drive turnout either.

 

What drives real turnout is the federal landscape and, to a lesser extent, the statewide gubernatorial campaign and to a much lesser standard, primaries for the other statewide offices.  If people are mad about what’s happening in Washington, they turn out in droves and they usually support everyone down stream.  Governor’s races are usually crises of conscience for the party, with a conservative challenging a establishment candidate or a liberal challenging an establishment candidate, depending on the party.  Last election, over $100 million was poured in to the state, so GOTV was pretty spectacular.

 

Orange County election rules essentially guarantee, by virtue of the ease with which a write-in candidate can qualify to run, that candidates will face off in a primary election.  Thus, Mayor Jacobs will most certainly face off against former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings on August 26, 2014.  If one of them earns 50.1%, they need only face a write-in in November.  Should they come in at anything less than 50%, there will be a run-off.

 

Because boosters of Mayor Jacobs point to the 2010 election that evidence she can win again, we should seek to understand the climate that was taking place in August 2010.

 

First, Democrats weren’t doing great.  Two months later, the US House would swing to the Republicans and Rick Scott would join Adam Putnam, Pam Bondi and Jeff Atwater as having a cabinet that was entirely Republican.  This isn’t particularly relevant, though, as the more pressing question for our analysis is determining who had a motivation to vote in the primary election ballot of 2010, because that will lead us to an apple-to-apple comparison.

 

To Summarize 2010:

 

Governor

– Republicans had a hotly contested primary for governor between Attorney General Bill McCollum and Health Care executive and multi-millionaire Rick Scott.

 

– Democrats had no meaningful primary for governor, with sitting CFO tackling a small-time, underfunded, outmanned candidate.

 

Turnout Advantage: Overwhelmingly Republican, who had $60 million or so of Get out the Vote Advertising compared to the Democrats, who had a chosen candidate cruising to election

 

US Senate

– Republicans had Marco Rubio steamrolling to victory after running Governor Charlie Crist out of the primary in a drubbing

 

– Democrats had Kendrick Meek fend off billionaire Jeff Greene

 

Turnout Advantage: Tie, although the 26.5 point victory of Congressman Meek was never in doubt, all the dialogue was about whether democrats would defect to Charlie Crist.  (They did).  The Marco voters were motivated and excited that they had pushed Crist out of the party, creating a de facto advantage in perception for the Republicans.

 

Cabinet

– Republicans had a three-way primary for Attorney General between former AHCA secretary Holly Benson, Lieutenant Governor Jeff Kottkamp and Pam Bondi.  No primary for CFO or Agriculture Commissioner.

 

– Democrats had a two way primary between State Senator Dan Gelber and State Senator Dave Aronberg.

 

Turnout Advantage:  Tie, but the total money spent by the Republican candidates outweighed the money spent by the democrats leading to a theoretical turnout advantage for the Republicans.

 

US Congress

– Republicans had two major primaries taking place.  In the District 8 primary, former house speaker and senate majority leader Dan Webster faced off against six opponents.  In the District 24 race, Florida Rep Sandy Adams defeated four challengers.

 

– Democrats had two incumbents, one of whom, Alan Grayson, faced no primary opposition and the other, Suzanne Kosmas, handily defeated former Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka with almost 80% of the vote.

 

Turnout Advantage: Overwhelmingly Republican.  The Tea Party was peaking, and Republican voters turned out en masse to vote for their choice to send Grayson and Kosmas packing.  Both democrat incumbents were defeated two months later.

 

Local Offices

– No countywide offices were on the ballot this year, with races for constitutional offices like Sheriff, Clerk of Court, Comptroller, Tax Collector and Property Appraiser coming in presidential election years

 

Local Referenda

– There were no meaningful or grass roots driven referenda on the ballot

 

Reading this, it should be clear to the most biased observer that things were trending heavily in the Republicans’ way in that election.

 

So What Happened in the 2010 Orange County Mayor’s Primary Race?

 

Two Democrats, Bill Segal and Linda Stewart, faced off against two Republicans: Matt Falconer and Teresa Jacobs.

 

Segal led the money race, followed by Jacobs, Falconer (largely self funded) and Stewart.

 

A steady drumbeat of bad press led to concerns over Segal’s ethics, and he was hamstrung out of the gate.  Jacobs led an ethics driven campaign, which meshed with all the tea party voters that would choose Rick Scott over Bill McCollum that day.

 

Jacobs 42.3% – Segal 22.92% – Stewart 19.2% – Falconer 14.98

 

Or more specifically, Republicans garnered 57.28% of the vote to the Democrats 42.12%, for a net advantage of 15.16%.

 

Fast Forward to 2014

 

In politics, things can change in a second.  A death, a scandal, a change of heart from the right politician can change everything.  Four and a half years ago, the decision of Mel Martinez to resign his spot in the US Senate set up a sequence of dominoes that would find us with a new US Senator, Governor, AG, CFO and Agriculture commissioner.

 

This is being written on February 3, 2014, and major changes could happen between now and qualifying day.  So having said that, we must rely on our current information.

 

As of today, this is the comparison matrix to four years ago.  Again, this could change in a second.  To summarize the current state of the 2014 elections:

 

Governor

– Republicans are set to nominate Rick Scott for a second term.  Early speculation of a primary challenge has disappeared.

 

– Democrats have a primary looming, with GOP turned DEM governor Charlie Crist wanting his job back and facing a challenge from liberal south Florida former state senator Nan Rich.

 

Turnout Advantage: Democrats.  If a wealthy, self-funding democrat gets in to this race, it could skew heavily towards the democrats.  If Nan Rich drops out and Charlie cruises the nomination, the democrat advantage could be muted.

 

US Senate

– There is no opening in the US Senate in 2014, hence no race and no advantage

 

Cabinet

– There are no serious challengers to the attorney general, chief financial officer or agriculture commission from fellow Republicans.  CFO Atwater made news by applying for the FAU presidency, but he was not shortlisted.

 

– Democrats have a primary looming in the AG race between former DCF secretary George Sheldon and current house minority leader Perry Thurston.  The field for down ticket cabinet offices is less certain, but there will likely be multiple candidates for most posts.

 

Turnout Advantage: Democrat.  Yet again, there is no real threat to Republicans, allowing them to shuffle their money to the general election.

 

US Congress

– Congressman Dan Webster appears to be cruising to reelection, although rumors continue to loom that a Matthew Falconer or Todd Long could challenge him.

 

– Democrats lost their best chance to pick this seat up when Val Demings announced she would challenge Jacobs for mayor

 

Turnout Advantage: Tied at nothing, with a possible minute bump for Republicans if one of the tea party guys challenges Webster. 

 

Local Offices

– The death of Republican Clerk of Court Lydia Gardner led to the appointment of Eddie Fernandez, a popular Hispanic young Republican.  He appears to be backed by the various Republican factions and will likely experience unified support.

 

– Democrats are likely to have a crowded primary field because of the high likelihood that whatever democrat wins the primary will be elected in the overwhelmingly democratic county.

 

Turnout Advantage: Strongly Democrat.  From a grassroots point of view, this could generate nothing but free votes for Demings in the primary because the race will not likely be driven by big spending.

 

Local Referenda

-The Florida Legislature preempted Orange County’s ability to implement extra requirements on paid sick leave, but it remains on the ballot for the primary.

 

Turnout Advantage: Overwhelmingly Democrat.  Those who want Paid Sick Leave will go out and work for it.  They will want it to pass to show how popular it is.  Conversely, the Dardens and Disney Worlds won’t spend a dime because they know it’s already preempted.

 

What does it all mean?

In short, the turnout mechanism for Teresa Jacobs is brutally bad.  She won’t get any form of draft or coattails.  Her opponent will get a ton.

 

Forget about everything but Get Out the Vote.  The incumbent may have more money and name ID.  If the parties, and I do believe a greater-than-usual number of independent groups and 527’s will engage, are able to successfully define that Teresa Jacobs is a member of the Republican Party and Val Demings is a Democrat, than the turnout model spells doom for Mayor Jacobs.

 

In 2012, she had $60 million in statewide expenditures and a candidate from Orlando IN THE GOVERNOR’S RACE ALONE driving turnout.  Neither will be there this time.

 

She had Tea Party energy driving voters in the US Senate and Congressional Races.

 

She was a clean candidate with a promise of ethics reform that spoke to those Tea Party voters, and she had concerned democrats not wanting to vote an ethically challenged land developer into the mayor’s office.  She had no TextGate, no fines, no stain from her muddled handling of Paid Sick Leave.

 

Her opponents were viewed as ethically challenged (Segal) or crazy (Stewart and Falconer).

 

With all of that, she got 42% on the primary ballot.  Forty-two percent.

 

Now, she faces a decorated African American law enforcement officer with a last name that has twice been elected countywide.   There are no ethical lapses to defend, no scandals to exploit, no questionable financials to pitch to the newspaper.

 

Some voters vote in every election, no matter what.  They return HOA ballots blank because they don’t know anybody.  Those voters are going to vote.  But for the partisan Republican set, what will get them to the polls in August?  No US Senate race.  No crowded congressional primaries.  No gubernatorial primary.  No cabinet. 

 

The democrats?  Plenty.  A primary in the governor’s race, an attorney general primary, Paid Sick Leave, a primary for Clerk of Court.  They will come out in droves.

 

Remember that going in to the primary in 2010, Segal enjoyed a massive advantage in money raised.  By the time the general rolled around, people realized the race was trending Jacobs’ direction and hedged their bets.  Developers and business interests showed up on her finance reports and she actually outpaced him near the end.

 

And then, there is Jacobs’ Rick Scott problem.  The governor may well be reelected, but his popularity will be surging in September and October.  Does Jacobs risk further backlash by refusing to endorse the governor before the primary?  If she makes a runoff to the general, which appears unlikely, does an endorsement cost her even more?

 

Jacobs has been notoriously stingy with her endorsement with all seats.  Will she extend it to Eric Eisanaugle or Vicki Bell in the house contest and risk alienating the independent and crossover democrats, or will she further cement her damaged relationship with the Republican Party by steering clear of those races?  Will she do the same with Eddie Fernandez, who will likely prevail but could well have some prominent primary opposition?  Be a team player because you need the team to support you, but make enemies, or chance it alone?

 

This brings us to the possibility that a third-party comes in to split up the vote to guarantee a run off, where Jacobs will presumably do better.

 

It won’t work but, the very fact that a “popular mayor” would need to consider such a strategy is as unthinkable as a popular governor having to run as a third party for the US Senate.  Here’s why:

As of today, there are 295,599 democrats in Orange County compared to 202,584 republicans, for a 93,015 vote delta.

 

Affiliation	Voters	Percentage
Democrat	295,599	42%
Republican	202,584	29%
Other	41,987	6%
NPA	157,799	23%
All	697,969	100%

 

Assuming the turnout machine for the state accurately portrays Val Demings as “the democrat” and Teresa Jacobs as “the Republican”, and assuming a turnout model that demonstrates a 10% enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans over Democrats, that still shows Val entering the race with about 37.8% of the vote to Teresa’s 29%.  Of the remaining 33.2% of the NPA vote, Demings must garner under-40% of that race to be elected Mayor while Jacobs must pull over 60%.

 

Normally, a mayoral candidate would love to enjoy, say, 70-80% support from their party base.  In this case, if Jacobs doesn’t have something approaching 90% the numbers simply aren’t workable.

 

Factor in two statewide variables, both of which favor Demings: the statewide medical marijuana initiative and the Florida Forever/Land acquisition initiative, both of which strongly favor democrat turnout, and a “trick play” is DOA.  If she found a way to recruit a candidate to split the vote in a way that hurt Demings and helped her, she would STILL be way under water for an expensive general election fight.

 

I read the comments of Orange County GOP chief Lew Oliver in the Orlando Sentinel where he said that it would be “preposterous” for GOP faithful to line up behind Demings over Jacobs”. 

 

The truth is that in the primary, where her opponents have more reason to vote, or in the general where the numbers are overwhelmingly bad from a party perspective, any Republican critique from bloggers or community leaders or really anyone with a Republican pulse makes a difficult job an impossible one.

 

If she doesn’t enjoy a 10%+ cross over appeal (ie she is favored by 10% more democrats than Val Demings is Republicans) with higher than normal loyalty from her Republican base, it is likely to be a very long night for the mayor, and a very good night for the Demings.

 

As the song says, at that point, she doesn’t have to go home, but she can’t stay there anymore… unless Mayor Demings grants her an appointment.

 

At this point, with the facts and assumptions I laid out here, I forecast Jacobs losing 57.67%-42.33%, and even worse if it reaches the general election.

 

###

 

 

Jacob Engels, is the Founder of East Orlando Post & Seminole County Post. He is a seasoned political operative who has led numerous statewide political groups and has worked on several high-profile local, statewide, and national races. Jacob has been interviewed on national television & radio programs, with his work having been featured in the Orlando Sentinel, New York Times, Washington Post, Miami Herald and other publications nationwide. He can be reached at info@eastorlandopost.com